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…(Scopus)Economic Factors Influencing the Price of Rubber for Forecasting Rubber Prices Using the Box-Jenkins Technique
Suphattana Tachochalalai
Faculty of Business Administration Rajamangala University of Technology Krungthep, Bangkok, Thailand
somkid yakean
University of Phayao
Suriya Suwannatippayachot
School of Business and Communication Arts, University of Phayao, Phayao, Thailand
Piyaphong Supanyo
School of Business and Communication Arts, University of Phayao, Phayao, Thailand
Chanchai Pommi
School of Business and Communication Arts, University of Phayao, Phayao 56000, Thailan
Konnut Pugatekaew
School of Business and Communication Arts, University of Phayao, Phayao, Thailand
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v7i1.2464
Received: 14 July 2025; Published: 19 January 2026
Copyright © 2026 Suphattana Tachochalalai, somkid yakean, Suriya Suwannatippayachot, Piyaphong Supanyo, Chanchai Pommi, Konnut Pugatekaew. Published by Nan Yang Academy of Sciences Pte. Ltd..
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Abstract
Rubber is one of the most economically significant agricultural products in Thailand. It creates jobs in rural communities, thereby alleviating the problem of labor migration from rural to urban areas, helping to maintain family unity and strengthen communities. The objective of this study is to examine the macroeconomic factors affecting rubber concentrated latex prices during the period from January 2011 to December 2024 and to apply the Box-Jenkins technique for forecasting daily rubber concentrated latex prices in Thailand from January 4, 2017, to March 31, 2025. The data were collected from several secondary sources, including the Rubber Authority of Thailand, Investing.com, and the Rubber Intelligence Unit. Pearson's correlation and multiple regression were applied for data analysis, while the Box-Jenkins technique was used for forecasting. The results indicated that crude oil prices, exchange rates, imports of rubber products, and exports of rubber products significantly predict rubber concentrated latex prices in Thailand. The Box-Jenkins technique (1,1,0) model was chosen, as it satisfies the goodness-of-fit criteria. The developed forecasting model enables rubber market participants to mitigate price volatility and optimize their strategic decisions. Given the interconnected nature of commodity markets, factors influencing rubber prices often exhibit similar effects across related agricultural commodities, making this model valuable for broader commodity market investment decisions.
Keywords: Box‑Jenkins Technique; Macroeconomics; Price Risk; Rubber Price