Research on World Agricultural Economy

The Relationship between the Wheat Market and the Financial Market in Malaysia Using a Dynamic Conditional Correlation Model (DCC-GARCH)

wisam ali

university of Anbar

Ali Y. Abdullah Al-Joaani

Ministry of Finance

abdulrazaq shabeeb Shabeeb

College of Administration and Economics, University of Anbar

Faez Hlail Srayyih

College of Administration and Economics, University of Anbar

Faisal Ghazi Faisal

Al-Idrisi University College

DOI: https://doi.org/10.36956/rwae.v6i1.1480

Received: 15 November 2024; Published: 6 February 2025

Abstract

The research aims to identify the nature of the dynamic relationship between the returns of the wheat market (RPW) and the returns of the general index of the Malaysia financial market (RISX), and to verify the transmission of shocks and volatility between the returns of both markets during the monthly period from (1/1/2004) to (31/10/2024). Using the Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH) model, the results showed an inverse relationship between the returns of both markets, with the correlation sensitivity reaching (–0.08%). This indicates a weak ratio, suggesting that diversifying the portfolio in both markets may increase gains to some extent. The predictive results indicated a positive correlation, which is also weak. As it refers to sensitivity to returns in both markets for dynamic changes that occur over time, there may not be an opportunity to achieve diversification when prices are imbalanced and to achieve returns in these markets. Therefore, the weak correlation between the returns of both markets indicates a decrease in their integration. The research recommended the need to increase the openness of the Malaysian securities market and to enhance its informational efficiency and transparency to increase the capacity and smoothness of the flow of information to and from the financial market.

Keywords: Dynamic Correlations, DCC-GARCH, Portfolio Diversification, Investor Interest

References